Tesla released its company-compiled delivery consensus for this quarter. The automaker is expected to deliver 377,592 electric vehicles, which would be its worst performance in more than two years.
At the end of every quarter, Tesla’s investor relations compiles delivery expectations from top analysts covering the company.
For the first quarter of 2025, Tesla reported a company-compiled delivery consensus of 377,592 deliveries, based on 27 analysts.
If the results come close to expectations, we will have to go back to Q3 2022 to find a quarter in which Tesla delivered fewer vehicles.
The Model Y design changeover in the first quarter is expected to significantly impact deliveries, as Tesla had to switch production from the older version to the new one at four different factories around the world.
However, it is far from the only factor impacting Tesla’s deliveries this quarter.
The analyst consensus for the quarter was over 450,000 deliveries in January, when we already knew about the Model Y changeover. Then, it has been consistently revised throughout the quarter to sit almost 75,000 units lower.
Those revisions came as European delivery numbers started pouring in, showing that Tesla was not only having issues delivering Model Y amid the changeover, but Model 3 sales are also down ~30% in the market.
In the US, the Model Y changeover is expected to have a significant impact since Tesla only started delivering the more expensive LR AWD Launch Edition version of the new vehicle in limited quantities.
Furthermore, to sell the Model 3, Tesla had to reintroduce 0% financing early in the quarter.
Finally, the Cybertruck is not selling well. Tesla had to throttle down production, and it is still sitting on thousands of trucks in inventory. A full recall and containment hold also didn’t help this quarter.
Electrek’s Take
I wouldn’t be surprised if Tesla arrived at fewer than 377,000 deliveries this quarter. I am sure that the company will blame everything on the Model Y changeover, but it will be a lie.
Model 3 deliveries are also down, Cybertruck is not selling despite federal tax credit and incentives, and while Tesla is still delivering volumes in China, it is doing so at the cost of its gross margins as competition is squeezing it out.
Right now, Tesla’s company-compiled consensus for the full-year 2025 is now at 1,850,000 vehicles.
I would expect this to come down after this quarter.
The Model Y changeover is undoubtedly having an impact, but Tesla is also suffering from brand damage. It’s hard to gauge how significant that damage is, but I think it will become clearer in Q2 and Q3.
Author: Fred Lambert
Source: Electrek
They’re not going to achieve 377k. I made a quick volume model – surprising that Wall St analysts can’t do this – and I would say 350k is optimistic at this point, with 335k my expected number. Plus with the mix of products and pricing incentives, probably means revenue/income is down even more. I would not be surprised to see negative net income. Can’t link the model here unfortunately, but you can find me on Medium at Louis Lenoir, I will publish a Q1 forecast this weekend.