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Rivian (RIVN) stock slides after Q4 deliveries slip, but there’s more to it

Rivian (RIVN) stock is down Tuesday after releasing Q4 and full-year 2023 results. Despite beating its 2023 production goal, Rivian’s deliveries fell short of Wall St’s expectations. Rivian said it expected a gap between deliveries and production due to Amazon limiting EDV intake during the holiday season.

Rivian stock falls after Q4 deliveries miss expectations

Rivian produced 17,541 vehicles in Q4, delivering 13,972 vehicles in the last three months of 2023. Although deliveries were up nearly 74% from last year, they were short of Wall St’s expectations of over 14,000.

Despite this, the EV maker beat its full-year production goal. Rivian built 57,232 vehicles in 2023, beating its guidance of 54,000. Deliveries reached 50,122, more than double last year’s numbers (24,337).

Rivian raised its 2023 production guidance by 2K in November following Q3 results. The EV maker has outpaced its peers as it continues ramping production at its Normal, IL facility.

  • Q4 deliveries: 13,972
  • Q4 production: 17,541
  • 2023 deliveries: 50,122
  • 2023 production: 57,232

The growth comes despite higher interest rates and more competition. Ford said its F-150 Lightning was the best selling electric truck through November, topping the R1T.

Rivian’s CFO Claire McDonough explained on the company’s Q3 earnings call that “we expect a more significant gap between production and deliveries in Q4.” This is “because Amazon limits the intake of new commercial vans during its peak holiday delivery period,” McDonough said.

Rivian EDVs for Amazon ready for delivery (Source: Devodare_Chicago)

Drone footage from YouTube user Devodare_Chicago shows what appears to be a “sea” of Rivian EDVs for Amazon lined up. The was from December 15, 2023.

After ending its exclusivity agreement with Amazon, Rivian as its second commercial partner last month. The EV maker is also preparing to begin construction on its second manufacturing facility.

Rivian R1S (Source: Rivian)

The massive $5 billion EV plant in Bryan County, GA will be home to its R2 lineup. Rivian’s R2 will be cheaper with starting prices around $40,000 to $50,000 as it expands the brand. Rivian is expected to hold a ground breaking ceromony in early 2024.

Despite the progress, Rivian’s stock is down 7% in Tuesday’s pre-market trading as investors hoped for higher Q4 deliveries. Rivian shares are still up 17% over the last 12 months.

Rivian stock chart over the past 12 months (Source: TradingView)

The news comes after Tesla broke another delivery record with over 484,500 deliveries in Q4 to beat its 1.8 million goal for 2023.

Electrek’s Take

Despite Q4 deliveries missing estimates, Rivian is still on the right track. Rivian expected a gap in deliveries and production with Amazon limiting intake during the holiday season.

The company is set to begin construction on its second manufacturing plant as it expands into new markets.

Rivian’s growth has come despite its vehicles costing $70,000 a piece. A cheaper lineup will help accelerate sales, but R2 is not expected to launch until 2026. Until then, Rivian will face more competition with the Tesla Cybertruck rolling out. New EV launches like the Chevy Silverado RST EV, GMC Sierra EV Denali, and Kia EV9 could put further pressure on deliveries.

The EV startup continues improving costs as it looks to achieve profitability. In Q3, Rivian lost around $30.5K per vehicle. Although this is still high, it’s down significantly from $139,277 in Q3 2022.

Rivian plans to shut down both consumer and commercial lines at its IL facility in Q2 2024 as it introduces new tech to further improve costs. The EV maker aims to exit 2024 with a “much improved margin profile.” The downtime is expected to impact two quarters of production.

Investors will be watching Q4 and full year margins closely as Rivian looks to become profitable. Rivian will report Q4 financial results on Feb 21. Check back for more details.

Author: Peter Johnson
Source: Electrek

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