Bitcoin’s outlook has strengthened amid positive September ETF flows and signs of greater risk appetite across altcoins. Following new PPI data, a 21Shares strategist said conditions could propel BTC toward $100,000 during a “potentially explosive Q4.”
Key Takeaways
- Producer inflation shifted attention to Friday’s CPI release.
- U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs drew about $603 million in September.
- Strategist sees $100,000 BTC returning to view during Q4.
Inflation Data Put Bitcoin’s Support Level to the Test
Bitcoin investors face another inflation test after wholesale prices climbed 0.4% during August, matching monthly expectations, while the annual rate came in slightly above forecasts, leaving the cryptocurrency near the $77,000 support identified by Matt Mena, senior crypto research strategist at 21Shares. The Bureau of Labor Statistics released new August Producer Price Index data on Sept. 10, showing final demand rose 0.4% during the month and 5.4% from a year earlier.
Mena characterized the overall PPI reading as slightly hotter than expected but noted in commentary provided directly to Bitcoin.com News on Sept. 10 that markets had largely anticipated the result amid rising oil prices. He said:
“A move above that resistance now looks increasingly plausible, and the setup for a run toward the $82K zone by month-end is strengthening.”
Energy supplied much of the pressure behind the report. Final-demand energy prices increased 4.2% during August, including a 24.1% surge in diesel fuel. Final-demand goods prices advanced 1.1%, while services prices increased 0.1%. The index excluding food, energy, and trade services rose 0.3% monthly and 4.7% annually.
The immediate price reaction kept bitcoin near a level that recently attracted buyers. Bitcoin had already rebounded from $77,603 toward $80,000. Mena cautioned that BTC could briefly revisit $75,000, but he viewed a recovery above $80,000 as increasingly plausible.
ETF Demand Supports Bitcoin’s Attempt to Recover
Institutional demand remains central to the bullish outlook despite two consecutive sessions of bitcoin ETF withdrawals. U.S. spot crypto ETFs attracted $1.24 billion during the week ended Sept. 4, with spot bitcoin ETFs accounting for $986.85 million, or approximately 79% of the total.
Bitcoin ETF inflows for the first six September trading sessions totaled approximately $603.3 million. Funds recorded $120.24 million in net outflows on Sept. 9, following $46.6 million in withdrawals one day earlier. Ether, XRP, and solana products nevertheless attracted fresh capital Wednesday, indicating that investors continued allocating money across the crypto market.
The 21Shares strategist tied the $600 million-plus bitcoin inflow total to BTC’s chances of climbing back above $80,000. The relationship between bitcoin and inflation remains unsettled over shorter periods, when interest-rate expectations, liquidity, and investor risk appetite can outweigh bitcoin’s fixed supply characteristics.
Altcoin Strength Adds Fuel to Q4 Forecast
Broader market performance has strengthened Mena’s conviction that investors are becoming more willing to take risks. He cited Hyperliquid’s move near $90 and ethereum’s three-week outperformance against bitcoin as signals that capital could be rotating toward altcoins after BTC established support.
Ethereum gained 29% during the period cited by the strategist, compared with bitcoin’s 20% advance. He identified $2,500 as a seven-month resistance level for ETH and projected that a confirmed breakout could open a path toward $3,000. His wider fourth-quarter outlook also placed $3,500 ETH, $100 HYPE, and $130 SOL within view. Mena wrote:
“The stage is set for a strong close to Q3 and a potentially explosive Q4, one in which $100K BTC, $3.5K ETH, $100 HYPE, and $130 SOL all come into view.”
Before those targets face a market test, investors must navigate the August Consumer Price Index, due at 8:30 a.m. Eastern time Friday. The 21Shares strategist expects subdued trading until the CPI result clarifies inflation conditions and shows whether a softer reading could strengthen bitcoin’s chances of reclaiming $80,000.
The Federal Reserve’s Sept. 15-16 policy meeting follows the CPI release and will shape expectations for the central bank’s next move. The two-day gathering will determine whether policymakers adjust interest rates after reviewing the latest inflation and labor data, making it another test for Mena’s fourth-quarter outlook.
Author: Kevin Helms
Source: Bitcoin
Reviewed By: Editorial Team
