Bitcoin could rip higher in the short term before slipping into a dangerous late-cycle phase, as on-chain data shows momentum rising on weakening liquidity, raising bear-market risks heading into 2026, according to Willy Woo.
Willy Woo Flags Final-Stage Bitcoin Setup as Bear Risks Intensify
Bitcoin could see a sharp short-term rally before entering a vulnerable late-cycle phase, according to on-chain analyst Willy Woo, who shared on social media platform X on Jan. 11, 2026, a split outlook pairing near-term bullish momentum with a bearish view for 2026.
The analyst stated:
I’m bullish BTC late Jan through Feb but presently bearish for 2026.
Woo added: “This is a data-informed opinion which I hold lightly.” He attributed the near-term setup to improving capital trends, explaining: “Our internal models of investor flows put in a bottom on 24th December and has steadily strengthened. Typically it takes around 2-3 weeks for this to express itself in price, arguably this is taking place now (only held back by very short term overbuying on technical oscillators).”
He also highlighted renewed derivatives participation, noting: “Also promising is that paper based liquidity (futures markets) is coming back in after dying for months, just like it did mid 2021 which lead to a second top in the last cycle.” Woo framed the next phase as conditional, explaining that the $98,000 to $100,000 zone must be contested first, after which market participants can assess how bitcoin responds near all-time-high resistance.
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Despite the bullish setup, Woo emphasized that longer-term signals remain fragile, clarifying: “But I remain bearish 2026 because in the broader picture liquidity flows have been waning relative to price momentum since Jan 2025. We are in the hot zone right now for the final stages when momentum has insufficient supporting liquidity.”
Explaining what could invalidate that outlook, he said:
What would change my mind would be a massive influx of spot (I.e. longer term) liquidity in coming months to break the waning down trend.
Woo also pushed back against broader market narratives around risk-on conditions, equities strength, or comparisons to gold and silver, stressing that his work focuses on measuring actual investor capital flowing into BTC rather than sentiment-driven assumptions. He cautioned that markets can rally without bitcoin participation if allocations do not materialize, while noting that confirmed bear market signals, defined by sustained negative outflows, have not yet appeared. He also recently shared his view that bitcoin’s remains intact, with capital flow metrics resembling late-stage exhaustion patterns seen before previous downturns.
FAQ ⏰
- Why does Willy Woo expect a short-term bitcoin rally? Improving investor flows and returning futures market liquidity suggest bullish momentum into late January and February.
- What price level does bitcoin need to break next? Woo says BTC must contest the $98K-$100K range before testing ATH resistance.
- Why is Willy Woo bearish on bitcoin in 2026? flows have weakened relative to price momentum since January 2025, signaling late-cycle risk.
- What could invalidate the bearish 2026 outlook? A large influx of spot, long-term in coming months could reverse the weakening trend.
Author: Kevin Helms
Source: Bitcoin
Reviewed By: Editorial Team
