Tesla (TSLA) has warned investors that it is currently in between growth waves – potentially affecting its guided 50% growth rate.
The growth Tesla has experienced in terms of vehicle production and deliveries over the last decade is undeniably impressive.
Tesla went from a poorly funded EV startup to the most valuable automaker in the world with a capacity to produce 2 million new electric vehicles per year.
With that comes a lot of credibility and that’s why more people took them seriously when they told investors that they plan to grow at a pace of roughly 50% per year.
That’s the growth rate you would expect from a successful software startup – not from what is now a major automaker producing a highly complex product like an electric vehicle.
It made no sense, but investors believed it because Tesla has accomplished a lot of other things that were deemed nearly impossible before.
However, Tesla itself is now throwing some cold water on the guided growth rate.
Tesla investor Gary Black reported new comments from Tesla’s investor relations during a recent investor conference.
He said that Tesla warned that it “is now in an intermediate low-growth period”:
Martin Viecha, Tesla’s head of investor relations, clarified the comment in a response to the post:
“What I said specifically is that we’re between two major growth waves: the first driven by 3/Y platform since 2017 and the next one that will be driven by the next-gen vehicle.”
Tesla has always said that the “~50% growth rate” would be long term and could vary year to year.
More specifically, the long-term goal has been an annual production capacity of 20 million vehicles by 2030.
Electrek’s Take
Viecha’s comment makes sense. Tesla doesn’t appear to be in a position to grow in any significant way with its current vehicle lineup.
Cybertruck is not likely to move the needle that much either with a planned capacity of 250,000 units.
Tesla really need its next-generaiton vehicles, especially the cheaper “$25,000 Tesla”, to really go back to significant growth.
The problem is that we don’t really know exactly when those next-gen vehicles are coming. We know that production lines are being developed at Gigafactory Texas as I write this, but it could still be years in the making.
Therefore, this “intermediate low-growth period” could last a few years.
What do you think? Let us know in the comment section below.
Author: Fred Lambert
Source: Electrek
Top comment by George
Liked by 4 people
I agree with the author’s analysis.. I had thought that cybertruck would contribute to the next wave but what he says seems to make sense.. The bad part is the low cost of vehicle is going to have pretty low margins. The other thing is that Elon does not seem to be too terribly interested in this program..
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