Tesla has released its Q1 2024 delivery and production numbers: confirming the suspicion that it is not growing anymore.
It’s even worse than most people anticipated.
Tesla Q1 2024 Expectations
As we have been reporting in the last few weeks, the expectations for Tesla’s Q1 2024 deliveries are all over the place.
Last month, the Wall Street consensus was around 470,000 deliveries, but it has been consistently revised down over the last few weeks as many of them now expect quite a disastrous quarter compared to the previous one.
As of today, the consensus is 431,000 deliveries.
In comparison, Tesla had record deliveries of 484,507 vehicles last quarter for a 20% year-over-year growth rate, and it delivered 422,875 in Q1 2023.
431,000 deliveries would still be a small growth year-over-ear, but it would be a massive quarter-to-quarter drop.
Tesla Q1 2024 Delivery and Production Results
Today, Tesla released its official Q1 2024 delivery and production results – confirming 386,810 deliveries for the first quarter of the year.
| Production | Deliveries | Subject to operating lease accounting | |
| Model 3/Y | 412,376 | 369,783 | 2% |
| Other Models | 20,995 | 17,027 | 1% |
| Total | 433,371 | 386,810 | 2% |
Tesla listed several excuses for the big delivery miss:
Decline in volumes was partially due to the early phase of the production ramp of the updated Model 3 at our Fremont factory and factory shutdowns resulting from shipping diversions caused by the Red Sea conflict and an arson attack at Gigafactory Berlin.
Electrek’s Take
This is next-level bad. Even the most pessimistic analysts didn’t come close to predicting this level of deliveries.
All these excuses that Tesla is listing are good excuses, but they are good for the lower production levels. They don’t explain the ~50,000-vehicle discrepancy between production and deliveries. That’s a demand problem. As clear as it gets.
I think this should be a wake-up call. This is Tesla going back about two years in terms of demand.
Author: Fred Lambert
Source: Electrek
This is why Tesla’s “threat” of increasing the price of Model Y vehicles isn’t going to stick. If demand isn’t meeting supply, then raising costs doesn’t magically turn that around.
Again, Tesla could be helping to bridge that gap by lowering the cost of FSD or EA and thus increasing sales. I’ve been using the FSD trial for the past few days, and it’s definitely not worth $12k/$6k. For starters, Summon and Smart Summon are still not present in cars without USS, and it’s been over a year. As nice as FSD is too, just like standard Autopilot the car constantly reminds you to keep you eyes on the road and hands on the wheel, and having to be that alert at all times means that you may as well be doing the driving yourself which doesn’t justify such a hefty price tag.