In a surprising move, Tesla (TSLA) has publicly released a delivery consensus for the fourth quarter of 2025 via a press release on its investor relations website. This is a significant departure from the automaker’s standard operating procedure, suggesting it is trying to get ahead of what looks to be a disappointing quarter.
By the end of the week, Tesla is expected to report its Q4 delivery results and confirm that its electric vehicle deliveries are down for a second full year in a row.
It’s not a great look for a company that is all about growth
For years, Tesla has compiled a consensus of sell-side analysts’ estimates, but it typically only shares this data privately through an email from its Investor Relations team to a select list of analysts and major investors.
Today, however, the company decided to publish the data for the world to see:
| Q3-2025 | Q4-2025 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | |
| Model 3/Y deliveries | 481,166 | 388,002 | 1,509,460 | 1,566,724 | 1,703,578 | 1,872,812 | 2,327,902 |
| All other models | 15,933 | 34,848 | 131,292 | 183,519 | 306,880 | 477,639 | 691,999 |
| Total deliveries | 497,099 | 422,850 | 1,640,752 | 1,750,243 | 2,010,459 | 2,350,451 | 3,019,902 |
| Median | 420,399 | 1,638,301 | 1,743,856 | 1,900,000 | 2,111,033 | 2,933,198 | |
| Standard deviation | 21,959 | 21,959 | 107,729 | 297,891 | 641,401 | 937,686 | |
| Number of estimates provided | 20 | 20 | 20 | 17 | 16 | 11 | |
| Energy Storage Deployments (GWh) | 12.5 | 13.4 | 45.9 | 63.9 | 87.7 | 112.5 | 141.8 |
| Median | 13.2 | 45.7 | 62.1 | 86.6 | 115.7 | 140.3 | |
| Standard deviation | 1.3 | 1.3 | 7.0 | 13.2 | 18.9 | 26.2 | |
| Number of estimates provided | 16 | 16 | 15 | 13 | 12 | 8 |
The consensus, which Tesla says is “company-compiled,” pegs the median expectation for Q4 2025 deliveries at 420,399 vehicles (with a mean of 422,850).
This number is notably lower than the broader public consensus figures circulating on Wall Street. For instance, Bloomberg’s consensus has been hovering closer to 440,000 units.
By releasing its own, lower consensus publicly, Tesla appears to be attempting to lower expectations ahead of the official delivery and production report, which is expected in the first few days of January. If the “whisper numbers” on the street are 440k and Tesla delivers 425k, the stock would typically take a hit. By anchoring expectations to ~420k now, a 425k result might be spun as a “beat.”
A Second Year of Decline for Tesla’s EVs
The implications of this consensus are stark. If Tesla hits the median target of ~420,000 deliveries for Q4, it would bring the full year 2025 total to approximately 1.64 million vehicles.
This would confirm that 2025 is the second consecutive year of declining deliveries for the electric automaker.
- 2023: 1.81 million (peak)
- 2024: 1.79 million
- 2025 (Est): 1.64 million
A drop to 1.64 million represents a roughly 8% decline year-over-year, a significant acceleration in the wrong direction compared to the slight 1% dip seen in 2024.
The fourth quarter was expected to be difficult following the expiration of the U.S. federal tax credit at the end of Q3, which likely pulled forward a significant amount of demand into the third quarter (where Tesla delivered a record ~497k vehicles). However, a sequential drop of over 75,000 units is steeper than many bulls had hoped.
Author: Fred Lambert
Source: Electrek
Reviewed By: Editorial Team
