Tesla deliveries are expected to decrease this quarter to levels not seen in more than two years. We have to go back to 2022 to see the delivery volume the automaker is expected to deliver.
Time to worry for Tesla shareholders?
Prediction markets are entering the game of setting expectations for quarterly deliveries.
These markets use financial incentives, similar to betting, to predict specific outcomes. They became extremely popular during the latest US elections and have since expanded to predict a lot more outcomes ranging from sports to business to virtually anything.
Kalshi, one of the biggest prediction markets, has been running markets to predict Tesla deliveries that already gathered half a million in volumes.
It currently predicts that Tesla will deliver 359,000 vehicles in Q1 2025:
This would be down 7% year-over-year and a massive 27% down quarter-over-quarter.
In fact, you have to go back more than two years, Q3 2022, to get a quarter when Tesla delivered fewer vehicles than what is expected this quarter:
As we previously reported, Tesla’s sales are crashing in Europe this quarter – down by as much as 50%.
In China, Tesla’s most important market, sales are down slightly year-over-year.
The US is the most opaque market, and it will be the difference maker this quarter.
Electrek’s Take
This quarter would finally be the time to prove to Tesla shareholders that Elon is bad for Tesla. Unfortunately, they will blame the poor performance on the Model Y changeover, which will definitely impact Tesla negatively, but nowhere near that level.
I think it’s clear that the Elon effect is also working its magic here.
We know it since it’s not the first time Tesla has done a changeover. Now, it’s true that it’s the first time for a Model Y, which is best-selling vehicle, but the impact is more significant than when Tesla had factory shutdowns and supply chain issues last year.
The earnings are going to be even worse, but they will blame that on the new Model Y too.
Author: Fred Lambert
Source: Electrek
The Model Y changeover cannot last forever, and there are many deadlines coming up in 2025 for Tesla, from the Robotaxi to a more affordable Tesla model, from the “thousands” Optimus that are due to perform tasks in Tesla’s factories by the end of this year, to the unsupervised self-driving software available as a paid service in select markets starting in June.
It’s not a matter of if, but of when the chickens will come home to roost.