Bitcoin’s core security remains intact despite quantum computing advances, with risks limited to legacy coins, timelines stretching decades, and clear paths for non-disruptive upgrades that preserve market stability and decentralization.
Coinshares Finds Quantum Computing a Future Design Issue, Not Bitcoin Crisis
Long-term security considerations remain central to evaluations of Bitcoin’s durability as a monetary network. A by Coinshares published on Feb. 6 examines the implications of future quantum computing for cryptographic systems. The analysis evaluates whether those advances represent a material threat or a distant design consideration.
The report states:
“ Bitcoin’s quantum vulnerability is not an immediate crisis but a foreseeable engineering consideration, with ample time for adaptation.”
Coinshares analysts frame the discussion within Bitcoin’s existing security architecture, which relies on elliptic curve signatures for transaction authorization and SHA-256 hashing for mining and address protection. Addressing widespread confusion around the topic, the analysts added, “It is a common misconception that they break cryptography as a system, but this is not the case.”
Quantum computing introduces narrowly defined theoretical risks rather than a wholesale failure of Bitcoin’s design. Shor’s algorithm could eventually target elliptic curve schemes, but only once public keys are revealed, while Grover’s algorithm merely reduces the effective strength of symmetric hashes to levels that remain computationally prohibitive. As a result, exposure is concentrated primarily in legacy Pay-to-Public-Key outputs, representing roughly 8% of total supply, with only a small subset of UTXOs capable of producing short-term liquidity effects.
From a protocol and market perspective, the report argues that Bitcoin does not face a forced or urgent response. Emphasizing conservative, incremental upgrades over aggressive intervention, the analysts explained:
“Securing Bitcoin against quantum risks is feasible and non-disruptive.”
Cryptographer Adam Back told Coinshares, “ Bitcoin can adopt post-quantum signatures. Schnorr signatures [a technical implementation from a previous upgrade] paved the way for more upgrades, and Bitcoin can continue evolving defensively.” Premature hard forks, unvetted cryptography, or attempts to invalidate vulnerable coins are presented as higher risks than patience, given potential impacts on neutrality, decentralization, and property rights.
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In market terms, Coinshares estimates that only a narrow subset of vulnerable coins—around 10,200 BTC held in specific legacy outputs—could realistically be compromised quickly enough to appear on the market in a short time window under extreme assumptions. Even in that scenario, the volume would be comparable to routine large transfers or exchange flows rather than a supply shock. The remaining vulnerable coins are spread across thousands of addresses, implying theft timelines measured in decades, even with optimistic projections for quantum progress. For institutional investors, the conclusion is that quantum computing remains a long-horizon engineering problem aligned with Bitcoin’s conservative upgrade path and governance model.
FAQ ⏰
- Does quantum computing threaten Bitcoin today? Coinshares says quantum computing is a future engineering concern, not an immediate bitcoin security risk.
- Which bitcoin supply is most exposed to quantum risk? Roughly 8% of in legacy Pay-to-Public-Key outputs faces theoretical exposure.
- Could quantum advances flood markets with bitcoin? Extreme assumptions suggest only about 10,200 could reach markets suddenly.
- Can Bitcoin adopt post-quantum security upgrades? Analysts and Adam Back say incremental upgrades like post-quantum signatures are feasible.
Author: Kevin Helms
Source: Bitcoin
Reviewed By: Editorial Team
