Global wind capacity will more than double by 2030 (but it’s a shortfall)

National targets set by governments add up to just over a doubling of the global wind capacity by 2030, but fall short of tripling, according to a new report.

The current sum of 2030 national wind targets is 2,157 gigawatts (GW), a 2.4x increase from 901 GW capacity in 2022, according to a new report from energy think tank Ember. Reaching a global tripling of wind would require an additional 585 GW of capacity.

“Governments are lacking ambition on wind, and especially onshore wind,” said Dr Katye Altieri, electricity analyst at Ember. “Amid the hype of solar, wind is not getting enough attention, even though it provides cheap electricity and complements solar.”

Also Read: Solar Poised to Lead U.S. in New 2021 Electricity Capacity

At the UN’s COP28 climate change conference in December, countries reached an agreement to triple global renewables capacity by 2030. The International Energy Agency (IEA) declared this action as the “single most important lever” to cut emissions this decade and keep the 1.5C goal within reach. According to the IEA, to meet the tripling renewables capacity goal, wind capacity should also at least triple.

The report analyzed 2030 national wind targets in 70 countries plus the EU, which collectively represent 99% of current global wind capacity. The analysis suggests that global wind capacity will double. That’s mostly because China is expected to over-deliver – China added five times more wind capacity than the G7 in 2023 – and the rest of the world combined is on course to under-deliver.

The latest industry forecasts suggest that China is set to triple wind capacity by 2030, and it will continue to account for over half of global wind additions every year from 2024 to 2030.

The report suggests that there’s a large gap between the US’s and India’s forecast installations and what they need to meet their current 2030 targets. The US does not have an explicit target, but modeling suggests that wind will increase by 2.6x from 142 GW in 2022 to 369 GW in 2030. Achieving this requires building 32 GW of wind annually from 2024 to 2030. However, the US’s current build rate is very low – it added just 6.4 GW of wind in 2023.

India’s goal is to build 509 GW of renewables by 2030 including 110 GW of wind. Achieving this requires building 9.3 GW of wind capacity annually from 2024 to 2030. Annual wind installations in the country have risen over the past three years but the current build rate of 2.8 GW in 2023 is well below what’s needed.

Solar and wind are expected to provide over 90% of the growth in renewables capacity for a global tripling. To triple the renewable capacity with efficiency, the world needs to build wind power. The rapid growth in a few countries and the upward revisions of forecasts in key regions indicate that with the right combination of policy, regulatory, and financial support, rapid and large-scale wind growth can happen.

Ben Backwell, CEO of the Global Wind Energy Council, said, “Wind energy must be at the heart of the energy transition, every gigawatt installed is another step toward a confident green world. Targets play a key role in setting out a direction of travel, but the only thing that truly fights climate change, delivers clean industry, and provides secure energy is genuine action that delivers on those targets.”