Banking giant Standard Chartered is predicting a sharp rise in bitcoin’s value, with forecasts suggesting it could approach its all-time high of $73,800 as the U.S. presidential election nears. Rising Treasury yields, growing interest in bitcoin ETFs, and Trump’s improving election odds are key factors driving this potential rally, supported by increasing institutional inflows and bitcoin call option activity.
Bitcoin Rally Expected Ahead of US Presidential Election
Banking giant Standard Chartered has issued a report forecasting a potential surge in bitcoin’s value. Geoff Kendrick, the bank’s Global Head of Digital Assets Research, anticipates that bitcoin could near its record high of $73,800 in the weeks preceding the U.S. presidential election.
In the note released on Tuesday, Kendrick attributed bitcoin’s recent upward trend to several contributing factors. He stated:
For bitcoin, the combined factors mean a bleed up towards the all-time high of $73,800 looks likely pre-election.
Key factors driving this trend, according to Kendrick, include the steepening U.S. Treasury yield curve, renewed interest in spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), and Donald Trump’s improving election odds.
Kendrick also highlighted increased institutional involvement, including significant inflows into spot bitcoin ETFs and rising interest in bitcoin call options. He noted growing activity around the $80,000 strike price for bitcoin call options expiring on December 27 on the Deribit exchange. “Another 1,500 bitcoin was added to the open interest of the $80,000 call in the past week,” he said, reflecting growing confidence in a significant price rise.
The analyst further pointed out that Trump’s chances of winning have climbed to 56.3%, per Polymarket, which could be bolstering bitcoin’s upward trajectory as the U.S. election approaches. There is a 39% chance of a Republican sweep, with Trump winning and Republicans controlling both the Senate and the House. Kendrick added that if Trump prevails, there’s a 70% likelihood of a Republican sweep, potentially creating a favorable environment for risk assets like bitcoin. However, regardless of the election result, Kendrick underscored that “the broader trend towards digital asset adoption remains intact.”
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Standard Chartered recently predicted that bitcoin will set new all-time highs by the end of 2024, independent of the election’s outcome. According to Kendrick, bitcoin could climb to $125,000 if Trump wins or $75,000 under a Harris presidency, with possible short-term declines if Harris takes office. While regulatory concerns persist, other factors, such as the U.S. Treasury yield curve, offer a positive outlook for bitcoin.
Source: Bitcoin
